Experts Warn Double Whammy of Natural Climate Cycles and Human-Caused Climate Change Could Make 2024 the Warmest Year on Record

Climate experts warn that next year could be the warmest on record due to a combination of natural climate cycles and human-induced climate change. Forecasters predict that a moderate El Niño, which is characterized by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures, will occur this summer, creating significant weather pattern shifts worldwide. This event, combined with climate change, could result in a new record for the warmest year in 2023 and 2024. While computer models are typically less reliable in forecasting El Niño events during the spring, key precursors for El Niño development are already evident, making forecasters more confident. If El Niño conditions persist, it could lead to a temporary increase in global average surface temperatures, which may bring the planet very close to the Paris Agreement’s temperature guard rail of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.